The Old Masters Market, 2014-2025: Value Falls, Buyer Base Diversifies

Throughout history, in times of deep uncertainty, people have turned to the classics and the past for reference and solace. That pattern seems to hold true today: amid economic instability and ongoing geopolitical turmoil, including a near-continuous outbreak of new wars, the art market has been generally sluggish, particularly across the oversaturated contemporary and ultra contemporary segments. Yet the Old Masters evening auctions in London earlier this month defied expectations, generating a combined total of £58 million (excluding buyer’s premium) between Christie’s and Sotheby’s—a notable increase from 2024.

Topping the London Classic session was the record-setting £31.9 million sale of a Canaletto masterpiece at Christie’s, which accounted for a significant portion of the auction house’s £60,844,240 ($83,660,83) Classic Week total, combining results from the Old Masters Evening Sale and The Exceptional Sale.

Once part of the collection of Britain’s first Prime Minister, Sir Robert Walpole, the painting came to auction with a distinguished, fully documented provenance, extensive supporting literature and an exceptional state of preservation. Its surface retained a richly textured beauty, with impasto on many figures still intact thanks in part to a limited chain of ownership. The work quickly attracted strong interest, as paintings of this caliber rarely appear on the market, and five bidders from Asia, Europe and North America competed for the Canaletto during the sale.

According to Andrew Fletcher, Christie’s global head of Old Masters, it was quite extraordinary to have five bidders above £20 million on a lot like this. “Great works, and unusual works, priced right, continue to be the order of the day,” Fletcher told Observer, confirming that the Old Master market is in robust shape, with Christie’s July sale in London achieving the highest sell-through rate by value (99 percent) and the highest by lot (87 percent) in 13 years—marking the house’s fifth consecutive year leading the category globally. He revealed that the buyer of the Canaletto collects across categories, signaling how the Old Masters are generating new interest across different types of collectors.

Christie’s Classic Week in London also delivered standout results in The Exceptional Sale, where masterpieces of decorative art and historically significant objects from several eras achieved strong prices. After the sale, Thomas Williams, head of the auction, told Observer they were thrilled to see that the battle-scarred Union Jack—flown from HMS Spartiate at the Battle of Trafalgar—had sailed past its high estimate in a fiercely contested bidding war between phone and online buyers.

Also sparking excitement during the evening sale was Titian’s Portrait of a nobleman, seated before a window, which sold for £3,428,000 ($4,713,500). The consignor acquired the painting in a private deal through Christie’s from the collection of James O. Fairfax AC, which had previously placed it on long-term loan to the National Gallery of New South Wales in Sydney. Another highlight was Jan Davidsz de Heem’s luxurious and immaculately preserved still life, which sold for £3,670,000—hitting its low estimate, as likely expected and pre-arranged with the irrevocable bid covering it.

Christie’s Old Masters Evening Sale closed at a strong £46.2 million (excluding buyer’s premium), surpassing the low presale estimate of £39.57 million though falling short of the £50.23 million high. Of the thirty-nine lots offered, thirty-four sold, resulting in a solid 87.2 percent sell-through rate. The five unsold lots accounted for £820,000 in missed value, while three lots were withdrawn ahead of the sale, carrying a combined low estimate of £1.45 million.

An exceptional mix of high-quality consignments, strong presale commitments—covering 80 percent of the total hammer price, the highest-ever percentage for a July London Old Masters Evening Sale at Christie’s, according to Pi-EX analysis—and a smart, or simply realistic, pricing strategy (with most estimates under £4 million) proved to be a winning formula. The sale achieved the highest sell-through rate by value in the history of Christie’s Old Masters sales (99 percent) and the strongest sell-through rate by lot since 2012 (87 percent).

Sotheby’s performance was also solid—particularly given the current market climate—with its Old Master and 19th Century Paintings Evening Auction totaling £14.5 million ($19.9 million) and achieving a strong 81 percent sell-through rate. The sale was animated by active bidding both in the room and online. Of the thirty-one lots offered, twenty-five sold, while five failed to find buyers, representing £3.96 million in missed sales value. Ahead of the auction, Sotheby’s had also withdrawn two lots carrying a combined low estimate of £240,000. Nonetheless, results reflected an 11.7 percent increase from the previous year, although the total remains well below pre-pandemic levels—the July 2019 equivalent brought in £47.7 million.

Leading the auction was a rare, top-quality trophy lot: J.M.W. Turner’s The Rising Squall, Hot Wells, from St Vincent’s Rock, Bristol, a recently rediscovered painting and the first work the British master ever exhibited, painted when he was just 17 years old.

“We saw a buoyant saleroom—with electric bidding in the room, alongside bids from my colleagues on the phones (including those in our contemporary team) and online,” George Gordon, Sotheby’s co-chairman for Old Master Paintings Worldwide, told Observer. The competitive bidding began with the opening lot: an exquisite early 14th-century Byzantine icon that had recently resurfaced from a private collection in Italy. Estimated at £160,000–200,000, it soared to £825,500 ($1.1 million) after being pursued by six bidders—more than four times its high estimate.

The evening also set new records for several artists. Lorenzo di Credi reached £2.7 million ($3.7 million), a record for the Florentine Renaissance painter. A portrait by Corneille de Lyon doubled its estimate, selling for £863,600 ($1.2 million) after four bidders competed for it. Unpublished and largely unknown until now, a work by Diana de Rosa brought in £317,500 ($436,086), while a marine scene by Ivan Konstantinovich Aivazovsky sold for £1.1 million ($1.5 million).

Another major highlight was Artemisia Gentileschi’s David with the Head of Goliath, which sold for £1.9 million ($2.7 million), close to its high estimate. A recent rediscovery, Sotheby’s described it as “one of the best works by the artist ever to come to the market.” The painting carries notable provenance: it was executed around 1630, while Gentileschi was in London, and was commissioned by King Charles I. It remained in England until the late 18th Century and changed hands several times before being acquired in 2018 by the current consignor at Hampel Fine Art Auctions for just €104,000. At the time, it had been listed simply as the work of a 17th-century Caravaggesque painter; its attribution to Gentileschi was corrected online before this sale. The result marks a striking markup for the seller—especially in light of Gentileschi’s rising market, driven by renewed scholarly attention, feminist revisionism and increased institutional demand. Still, the price fell short of her top-tier results: Gentileschi’s strongest works now regularly fetch $3 million–6 million at auction when provenance and condition align, and her record remains $5.3 million, set at Sotheby’s Paris in 2018.

Notably, several of the best-performing lots in the sale were newly resurfaced—either recently rediscovered or reappearing after decades in the same family collection. Many of these works were won by bidders in the room after prolonged battles, a clear sign of genuine, competitive interest not driven solely by pre-arranged financial guarantees, as has become common in the increasingly hushed rooms of Contemporary and Modern evening sales. Instead, these bids appeared to come from true collectors, connoisseurs and even institutions, all drawn to the exceptional quality of works offered in London that week. Sotheby’s reported robust institutional, cross-category and global participation, with active bidding from Europe, the U.S., Asia and the Middle East across all auctions.

A broader look at Sotheby’s sales also reveals a significant and strategically successful expansion of focus to include 19th-century works, reflecting a shift in curatorial approach and market categorization.

It is also worth noting that these auctions took place after Regulation EU 2019/880 took effect. This regulation now requires European auction houses, galleries and antique dealers to provide detailed provenance research and documentary evidence for all cultural goods over 200 years old that originate outside the EU.

Old Master performance fluctuates across regions and time

This year was already expected to be a strong one for the category, particularly with Sotheby’s bringing to auction one of the most prestigious collections in recent memory, assembled by the late banker Thomas A. Saunders III and his wife, Jordan. Touted as the largest single-owner Old Masters collection ever to come to public sale, it was widely seen as a bellwether for the market.

However, when it was auctioned in May, the collection reached a combined total of $65.4 million—well below the $80-120 million estimate range. Despite falling short of the $49.6 million benchmark set by the Fisch Davidson collection in 2023, it still marked the highest total achieved for a single-owner Old Masters auction. The sale underperformed, with a 62 percent sell-through rate, attributed not to the quality of the lots, but to more cautious buyer behavior at the top end of the market, coinciding with Trump’s tariff threats and renewed stock market volatility. And yet, even in a sluggish, post-Brexit London market, last week’s results suggested a more energized collector response.

Nonetheless, despite the Saunders collection falling short of expectations, ArtTactic’s latest report on global auction data confirms that the Old Masters category outperformed other art market segments in the first half of 2025—likely boosted by the exceptional turnout at the July auctions—rising 35.6 percent year-over-year to $171.2 million. In 2025, combined sales for Old Masters totaled £57.8 million.

“This year has already been another exciting one for Old Masters, with standout paintings and prized collections dominating the headlines,” George Gordon, Sotheby’s co-chairman for Old Master Paintings Worldwide, told Observer when asked about the market in the first half of 2025. “Not only did we set a new record in May for the most valuable collection of Old Masters ever sold in a single auction in New York, but we also presented extraordinary rarities and discoveries in our most recent London sale.” Gordon sees Sotheby’s as leading the global Old Masters market this year. “Beyond the auction room, we’ve announced several significant private sales to museums, including two works that have recently found a home in London’s National Gallery—an exquisite still life by Floris van Dijck and an exceptionally rare and striking Early Netherlandish altarpiece.”

In February, Sotheby’s Master Paintings Part I sale also showed strong performances, achieving a total of $23.3 million—up from $16.8 million in 2024. Highlights included Peter Paul Rubens’s Annunciation, which sold for $4 million; Raphael’s early work Saint Mary Magdalene, which achieved $2.6 million; and a Mystic Marriage of Saint Catherine attributed to Botticelli’s workshop, which brought in $550,000.

As Sotheby’s Old Masters team shifts focus toward the December sale in London, Gordon anticipates several exciting works in the pipeline. But first, another major auction: the sale of the Manny Davidson collection in Paris and London is already generating high expectations. “The Davidson collection will include exceptional Old Master paintings by artists such as Rubens, Reynolds, Michael Sweerts and Thomas de Keyser,” Gordon explains. “The Rubens in particular has a fascinating story—it’s a rediscovery, now identified as the twin to a sketch hanging in the Louvre, with the saw marks on the original oak plank aligning like a jigsaw puzzle.”

However, ArtTactic data indicate that Christie’s has already surpassed Sotheby’s in 2025, claiming 80.1 percent of the market versus Sotheby’s 19.1 percent, leading both in value and volume.

Christie’s in the first half of 2025 has demonstrated the strength of strategic scholarship and the market’s continued appetite for rediscoveries. During its February Old Masters evening sale in New York, the top lot—Joachim Anthonisz Wtewael’s Adam and Eve—sold for $2 million after a $1 million-1.5 million estimate. Another standout was the Portrait of Mary, Duchess of Burgundy by the Master of the Magdalene Legend, which soared to $239,400 against a $40,000-60,000 estimate.

In May, Christie’s Old Masters and 19th Century Paintings sale returned with more cautious expectations, as no lots carried six-figure estimates. Still, the auction delivered notable moments—Galatea, a fragment attributed to Artemisia Gentileschi, achieved $428,400, more than quadrupling its $50,000-70,000 estimate. Another recently reappraised female artist, Catherine Lusurier, also drew strong bidding: her late 18th-century Portrait of a Young Artist sold for $239,400 over a $40,000-60,000 estimate.

At the same time, according to ArtTactic, the July auctions confirmed a promising rise in price confidence among bidders at both auction houses, with more lots selling over the low estimate. In this context, Christie’s reported an average price of £1.36 million in 2025—well above Sotheby’s £460,400—marking the fourth consecutive year it has outperformed in this metric. While collectors may be more cautious with estimates and expectations, they remain eager to compete for exceptional works whose value is supported by strong attributions, compelling stories and historical importance.

“The Old Masters market hasn’t exactly been perceived as the most exciting part of the art world in recent years, but if you look across the last decade or so, it’s proven to be the most stable,” Megan Corcoran Locke of ArtTactic told Observer, noting how, while other sectors have surged and slumped, Old Masters have quietly held their ground. “Fewer star lots, yes—and even when they do appear, they rarely hit the record-breaking heights of the Impressionist, Modern or Post-War markets, but the category continues to perform consistently.”

Reading the market

Nonetheless, it is worth remembering that auction figures reflect only a partial view of the market, as the most valuable masterpieces—especially in a segment already burdened with regulatory and provenance constraints—are often negotiated and transacted privately, under the radar of public reporting. To get a fuller picture of the market’s current mood, Observer turned to dealers.

“The Old Master market this year has been firm but selective: outstanding things, like the Canaletto at Christie’s, do exceptionally well,” confirmed Jonathan Green, CEO of Richard Green Gallery, a London-based gallery and long-standing leader in the field, now in its fourth generation of family ownership after 70 years in business. “Blue-chip names, provenance and good condition are key. We have found a thirst for 18th-century Venetian vedute paintings and 18th-century French: people are looking for charm and comfort.”

Marco Voena, partner at Robilant+Voena—one of the most respected galleries specializing in European Old Masters and 20th-century Italian and American art—offered a more assertive take. “The recent success of the Canaletto masterpiece marks the end of around 15 years of speculation in the art market,” Voena told Observer. He co-founded the gallery in London in 2004 with Edmondo di Robilant, and now operates exhibition spaces in London, Milan, Paris and New York.

For Voena, the market had been treated for far too long like a stock exchange—something it was never meant to be. “People buy a piece of art that often doesn’t see the light of day, and one is thus unable to build a connection to it. And why? Because in six months, or a year, or two years, it will end up back on the market, with a mark-up,” he observed.

Yet the successful sale of the Canaletto signals the return of more passionate connoisseur collectors able to appreciate true quality and cultural relevance. “This last year for Old and Modern Masters, there has been a shift to what truly matters: quality. Just look at the museum-level pieces that have been offered… the Canaletto, the still life by Jan Davidsz de Heem, the cottage interior by Gerrit Dou, the Saint Quirinus by Renaissance master Lorenzo di Credi, the portrait by Corneille de Lyon and J.M.W. Turner’s first discovered work,” he notes. “Everything sold and sold well. The Turner, the Canaletto, the de Heem…”

“July is a good moment to take stock,” Alessandra di Castro told Observe. “For us art dealers and antiquarians, this is when we assess the year—before the summer break—because it’s also a crucial time for preparation and acquisition,” explained the renowned Roman antiques dealer, the fourth generation of her family leading the historic business based in Piazza di Spagna.

Though rarely discussed, summer is a critical period for Old Masters dealers. It’s when acquisitions, restorations and planning for the fall and spring seasons take place. “We buy, restore and above all, study—conducting all the research that allows us to bring new discoveries to fairs like TEFAF Maastricht,” she said. As dealers look for consignments or outright purchases, they must already know where the market is headed and where to place their money. “As antiquarians, we invest directly in objects. So we must ask, is now the right time to invest, and in what? We have to make choices, anticipate trends and tastes, and understand where the market is moving. These are the months when we reflect, exchange views and observe.”

At the time of our conversation, Di Castro was particularly optimistic after celebrating a historic milestone: the VAT on art sales being reduced from 22 percent to 5 percent, the lowest in Europe. “The new 5 percent VAT applies to the sale of artworks, excluding margin schemes for private sales. It also applies to imports from the U.K., U.S. and Switzerland, where we previously paid 10 percent. So you’re asking me this at a euphoric moment, one I believe will help revive the domestic market,” she noted.

Still, Italy remains burdened by restrictions on the export of cultural property, and the implementation of Regulation EU 2019/880 in June is expected to introduce new bureaucratic challenges. Di Castro is currently importing her first object under this new rule, and everything is on hold as she navigates the process. “I haven’t found it obstructive yet, mostly because we’re confronting it for the first time. But bureaucracy is heavy—more red tape means more logistical burden and higher compliance costs.” Despite this, she remains hopeful, as the VAT reduction should help offset some of these issues. Additionally, Federico Mollicone, chair of the Culture Committee in Parliament, announced a new legislative proposal titled Italia in scene, focused on innovation, promotion and simplification. That, she hopes, will lead to long-overdue updates in cultural heritage policy—particularly the notification system still governed by a law dating back to 1939. “That needs updating too,” she said. “We should focus restrictions on truly exceptional works of historic and artistic value, not pieces that circulate frequently.”

New legislation could help Italy catch up after years of delay and bring the country back in line with its European peers. “This is crucial, especially for international fairs like TEFAF,” she added. “Italian dealers often show up with one leg tied, so to speak, compared to our potential. Closing that gap would be a major improvement.”

Di Castro, who sits on TEFAF’s executive committee and also serves as president of the Apollo group—which led much of the lobbying effort for the VAT reform—believes Italy’s political and bureaucratic apparatus may finally be awakening after years of inertia. “When a country understands the dynamics and potential of a sector and acts accordingly, it makes a huge difference,” she said. “My family has been based in Piazza di Spagna for four generations. I want to stay there for the next generations—my daughter has decided to become an antiquarian, too.”

Interestingly, many of Di Castro’s clients today are not necessarily international—or at least not necessarily based abroad. “There’s a passionate, curious Italian clientele that attends fairs and visits galleries,” she said. “There’s a growing younger clientele that doesn’t get much attention. Many foreigners are also buying homes in Italy, encouraged by the flat tax. They furnish them with Italian taste and aesthetics—those are very interesting clients. And now, buying in Italy is even more advantageous.”

Foreigners who relocate to Italy quickly absorb the beauty and want to be surrounded by it—much like travelers during the Grand Tour. Meanwhile, Italians are born into art. “Even if they’re doctors or lawyers, they grow up in cities of art. Our streets, fountains and buildings are museums in themselves. Art is part of our daily life, so eventually, when they can afford it, they want to live with it.”

Public museums are also buying more consistently, including Italian institutions—though it’s rarely discussed. “It’s not widely reported—perhaps because we lack proper monitoring—but I can assure you that Italian museums are buying, and they’re buying well to enrich their collections. That’s another important but overlooked development.”

The Di Castro family’s antiquarian legacy began in 1878 with her great-grandfather Leone, was revived by her grandfather Alberto after World War II, and continued through her father Franco. Alessandra now leads the business, and her daughter has chosen to follow in her footsteps.

She acknowledges the sector has suffered, especially during the pandemic. “Many galleries closed in historic centers—Naples, Genoa, Via del Babuino in Rome. These were once renowned streets for antiques.” The reasons, she explained, go beyond generational shifts or changing tastes—they include gentrification and shifting urban policies. Still, she’s convinced the profession is evolving, not disappearing. And the expertise behind it remains strong. The number of members in the Italian Association of Antiquarians, where she serves as vice president, has remained steady—always a small group of high-level professionals—but there’s a new generation of dealers emerging, often without any family connection to the trade.

“I could give countless examples of young people joining the association without any legacy behind them,” she said. “The 20th century is now considered historic, and many once-overlooked movements are being studied and exhibited.” In her own gallery, the focus has evolved with each generation. “Today’s young buyers are drawn to objects that speak to them. There’s no point pushing aesthetics that no longer resonate—taste and lifestyle have changed. You have to interpret new taste, as we’ve always done,” she added. “My grandfather dealt in furniture, my father in paintings, and I mostly deal in objets d’art. We’ve always evolved with the times. I deal in 20th-century works—something my father never did—because I see how contemporary that century still is.”

Even when she looks at Old Masters, Di Castro approaches them as objects. “I collect paintings because I love them, but I also look for exceptional condition and uniqueness—something I’ve never seen before,” she said. It doesn’t need to be by a famous name. Sometimes, the story of the object is more intriguing and valuable. “I’m not interested in speculation; I’m looking for something truly compelling. And today’s buyers are doing the same.”

Today’s collectors are informed and discerning, she confirmed. One positive side effect of recent crises is that it helped eliminate speculators. “There’s less improvisation now. Buyers want security and professionalism. They expect due diligence, provenance, scholarly documentation and proper presentation. The challenge is living up to those expectations.”

2024 tells a different story

Yet the picture was very different a year ago, and 2024 was not a strong year for the category. Data—primarily drawn from public auctions—suggests the Old Masters market generated $182 million in sales in 2024 (excluding buyer’s premium), a 44 percent drop from 2023, according to ArtTactic. Artnet estimated a slightly more contained decline of 27.8 percent, while Artprice placed the segment’s contraction between 32 and 49 percent. Artnet attributed the slowdown mainly to a scarcity of high-quality supply, noting only minor growth in the lowest price bracket (under $10,000).

According to this year’s Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report, Old Masters in 2024 remained the smallest of the fine art sectors, accounting for a stable 9 percent of total sales value and 8 percent of lots sold. European Old Masters comprised 4 percent of the total value and 5 percent of lots, both unchanged from 2023.

As the report notes, while European Old Masters once consistently dominated this segment by value, recent record-setting results for Chinese Old Masters have shifted the balance—evidence of a more globalized market and a growing interest among Asian collectors in reassessing their own artistic heritage. In 2024, European Old Masters accounted for just under half (48 percent) of the sector’s sales by value and 62 percent of lots sold. The U.K. ranked second in the wider Old Masters sector, with a 19 percent share of sales by value and 14 percent of lots sold. China emerged as the leading market, accounting for 45 percent of value and 20 percent of volume. France—particularly Paris—also gained prominence: its share rose to 9 percent of global Old Masters sales (up three percentage points) and 17 percent of the European segment (up seven points), representing 19 percent of lots sold in 2024.

Sotheby’s and Christie’s remained the dominant auction houses, together accounting for 50 percent of total sales by value and 12 percent of lots sold in the wider Old Masters sector. But Chinese houses also played a significant role: China Guardian, Xiling Yinshe and Beijing Poly Auction joined the top five, collectively making up 69 percent of sales value (down six percent year-on-year) and 19 percent of transactions.

Even when looking at the best-selling Old Masters in 2024, the picture remains mixed and fragmented, resisting broad generalizations. The year’s top lot was Jean Siméon Chardin’s Le Melon Entamé (1760), which sold at Christie’s Paris for $28.9 million—a record for the artist. However, the sale later became embroiled in controversy, as the auction house reportedly sued the buyer for non-payment. In second place was Titian’s The Rest on the Flight into Egypt (c.1508), which sold for $22.3 million at Christie’s London. One of only about 30 known works by the artist to appear at auction in the last two decades, it set a new record for Titian, surpassing his previous high of $16.9 million for A Sacra Conversazione, sold at Sotheby’s New York in 2011. Following that was a standout result for Quentin Massys the Elder, whose painting fetched $13.5 million—more than seven times his previous record. The work was acquired by the Getty Museum.

If we look at the Old Masters market—European and beyond—between 2014 and 2024, the downward trend is unmistakable. Total sales fell from $1.63 billion to just $803 million over the decade, with notable volatility along the way: a dip during the 2018 downturn ($941 million), a further contraction in the pandemic year of 2020 ($970 million), and a rebound to $1.17 billion and $1.1 billion in 2021 and 2022. ArtTactic data confirm that 2020 marked a low point for Christie’s and Sotheby’s, with just £39.5 million in combined sales and only 45 lots sold across both houses—the weakest performance of the past decade. Since then, volume has gradually stabilized. In 2023, the market briefly recovered to $1.2 billion, thanks in part to highlights from the Paul Allen sale. But 2024 saw another dramatic decline, largely due to limited supply and the absence of trophy lots—no work sold above the $10 million mark.

The picture is particularly stark for the European Old Masters segment, which shrank from $838 million in 2014 to just $384 million in 2024—its worst year on record, even below the pandemic-era low of $354 million. The 2017 peak of $646 million, driven by the headline-generating Salvator Mundi sale, now feels like a distant anomaly.

Still, the 2024 data hint at a more balanced and possibly more inclusive market. Works priced over $1 million accounted for just 34 percent of total value, down from 52 percent in 2023, while the mid-market ($50,000 – $1 million) expanded to 48 percent. Just 10 percent of total value came from $10m-plus works—the lowest share of any sector and a steep fall from 21 percent last year. Meanwhile, 93 percent of lots sold were under $50,000, contributing 19 percent of the total. Sales under $1 million dipped only slightly (-2 percent year-on-year), but the sharpest declines occurred at the top end: $1m-plus lots fell 43 percent in number and 57 percent in value. Last year, the only area of real growth came from the low end, where works under $50,000 rose 9 percent in volume and 5 percent in value. This suggests that even in a challenging climate, the collector base may be expanding—not necessarily only for masterpieces, but also, as Alessandra Di Castro pointed out, for a broader, more varied tier of works.

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