The Middle East conflict has been disastrous for Dubai’s art market. What does it mean for London?

The most prominent art market casualty of the current conflict in the Middle East so far has been the 20th edition of Art Dubai. The Middle East’s premier international contemporary art fair, hosting 120 galleries from 35 countries, was due to take place from April 17-19. But because of the Iranian drone and missile attacks on the city and its airport, the busiest for international traffic in the world, the event has been postponed until mid-May. This allows for the galleries, who had all paid their stand costs in advance, to still take advantage of Dubai’s reputation and make some sales – if collectors deem it is still safe enough to travel there.

As far as auctions are concerned, London is where the main Islamic art auctions take place – twice a year. The next sales at Sotheby’s and Christie’s take place at the end of April, followed by Bonhams and all the smaller UK salerooms – Roseberys, Olympia, Sworders et al – in May and June. All feature Islamic art and artefacts from the Middle East as well as work from countries such as India.

So far, nothing has been cancelled apart from the auction previews in Dubai. A lot of material was consigned before the war broke out. Experts are telling me the main impediments are logistical: escalating travel costs and unreliability of transport meaning they cannot guarantee when goods will be delivered to the Middle East after the sales (many of those buying work in London live in that region).

Christie’s has assembled £6m of art for its sale on April 30 – a drop of 40 per cent in value compared to last April’s £7.7m sale total, which will look less precipitous when it adds its buyer’s premium as well as the Cowles collection of Indian paintings worth an estimated £1.5m. An important consignment for them is a group of five works from the Toledo Museum of Art in Ohio, the most valuable of which is a 13in Mamluk gilded and enamelled glass-footed bowl from the Golden Age of Islamic glassmaking (13^th-14^th centuries) with a £1.2m estimate. A larger, similarly gilded and enamelled glass lamp from the same period sold at Bonhams in 2024 for over £5m.